Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon
I suspect what ever else happens Iran is out of the game now, all it's support to Hamas and Hezbollah was channeled through Syria, it can move money now but little else, the question becomes what does the rest of Lebanon do with Hezbollah as they start to lose military control within Lebanon, the basis of their power was always the ability to draw on support and logistics through Syria
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Iran gets weapons to hamas via multiple smuggling channels including offshore, Egypt, sudan, yemen and lybia. The west bank and Gaza don't even border Syria. They also smuggle components and then Hamas builds weapons in Palestinian factories
Hamas wasn't even allied with Syria for the past number of years, which is why it moved its hq out of Syria over a decade ago.
So again, the outcome of "this is super negative for Hamas and positive for Israel" is possible, but far from inevitable.
Likewise, with Lebanon, it's unclear their army can defend it's own borders against the Islamist groups that will replace assad. And they could be even worse for Lebanon than assad was.