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1qqaaz · 12-02-2024, 08:38 PM

In light of the fact that almost none of the prospects drafted this year seem to be playing in the World Juniors, I decided to evaluate their current production relative to last year's pace. Notably, the first three players taken are all showing regression. Everyone else is showing progression, though Misa and Jamieson are showing almost negligible offensive production.

Zayne Parekh
Last Year: 1.45 points per game
This year: 1.36 points per game
= -0.09 points per game

Matvei Gridin
Last year: 1.38 points per game in the USHL
This year: 1.16 points per game in the QMJHL
= -0.213 points per game
It should also be noted that the USHL has a stronger NHLe coefficient than does the QMJHL (OHL: 0.21, USHL: 0.18, WHL, 0.17, and QMJHL, 0.16). Accounting for this difference, the regression is even greater.

Andrew Basha
Last year: 1.35 points per game
This year: 1.18 points per game
= -0.17 points per game

Jacob Battaglia
Last year: 0.97 points per game
This year: 1.41 points per game
= +0.44 points per game

Henry Mews
Last year: 0.94 points per game
This year: 1.28 points per game
= +0.27 points per game

Kirill Zarubin
Last year: 0.902%
This year: 0.927%
= +0.025%

Trevor Hoskin
Last year: 1.92 points per game, NHLe of 14.2
This year: 0.98 points per game, NHL of 20.9
= NHLe improvement of 6.7

Luke Misa
Last year: 1.23 points per game
This year: 1.33 points per game
= +0.10 points per game

Hunter Laing
Last year: 0.39 points per game
This year: 0.63 points per game
= +0.24 points per game

Eric Jamieson
Last year: 0.48 points per game
This year: 0.50 points per game
= +0.02 points per game

For the record - I loved this draft. Many of the players had great point totals in their draft year. The Flames definitely picked for upside. Statistically speaking, if a prospect show little to no point progression in their D+1 year, their chances of becoming regular NHLers become exponentially lower.
However, the players with regression are also those taken in the first three picks. They have more of a cushion in terms of non-linear progression.

And of course, there is much more to hockey than points. Some players may be focusing on their defensive prowess or on other aspects of the game. For example, Etienne Morin seems to be improving his defensive side of the game, even though his point totals are similar to that of two seasons ago. It's also still quite early in the season. Hot streaks make a big difference. Parekh has been better of late. Basha has been injured. I recommend checking out Sandman's updates on the prospects boards.

Those showing the most progression are Battaglia, Mews, and Zarubin.
Those showing the most regression are Gridin, Basha, and Parekh.

12-02-2024, 08:38 PM	#1
1qqaaz Franchise Player Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Indiana Exp:	By the Numbers: Early Evaluation of the 2024 Draft In light of the fact that almost none of the prospects drafted this year seem to be playing in the World Juniors, I decided to evaluate their current production relative to last year's pace. Notably, the first three players taken are all showing regression. Everyone else is showing progression, though Misa and Jamieson are showing almost negligible offensive production. Zayne Parekh Last Year: 1.45 points per game This year: 1.36 points per game = -0.09 points per game Matvei Gridin Last year: 1.38 points per game in the USHL This year: 1.16 points per game in the QMJHL = -0.213 points per game It should also be noted that the USHL has a stronger NHLe coefficient than does the QMJHL (OHL: 0.21, USHL: 0.18, WHL, 0.17, and QMJHL, 0.16). Accounting for this difference, the regression is even greater. Andrew Basha Last year: 1.35 points per game This year: 1.18 points per game = -0.17 points per game Jacob Battaglia Last year: 0.97 points per game This year: 1.41 points per game = +0.44 points per game Henry Mews Last year: 0.94 points per game This year: 1.28 points per game = +0.27 points per game Kirill Zarubin Last year: 0.902% This year: 0.927% = +0.025% Trevor Hoskin Last year: 1.92 points per game, NHLe of 14.2 This year: 0.98 points per game, NHL of 20.9 = NHLe improvement of 6.7 Luke Misa Last year: 1.23 points per game This year: 1.33 points per game = +0.10 points per game Hunter Laing Last year: 0.39 points per game This year: 0.63 points per game = +0.24 points per game Eric Jamieson Last year: 0.48 points per game This year: 0.50 points per game = +0.02 points per game For the record - I loved this draft. Many of the players had great point totals in their draft year. The Flames definitely picked for upside. Statistically speaking, if a prospect show little to no point progression in their D+1 year, their chances of becoming regular NHLers become exponentially lower. However, the players with regression are also those taken in the first three picks. They have more of a cushion in terms of non-linear progression. And of course, there is much more to hockey than points. Some players may be focusing on their defensive prowess or on other aspects of the game. For example, Etienne Morin seems to be improving his defensive side of the game, even though his point totals are similar to that of two seasons ago. It's also still quite early in the season. Hot streaks make a big difference. Parekh has been better of late. Basha has been injured. I recommend checking out Sandman's updates on the prospects boards. Those showing the most progression are Battaglia, Mews, and Zarubin. Those showing the most regression are Gridin, Basha, and Parekh. Last edited by 1qqaaz; 12-02-2024 at 08:45 PM.