[Macindoc]

Whether the Flames make the playoffs depends on how much of the present Conroy is prepared to sacrifice for the future. As it stands today, they are a playoff team with a slightly above average goal differential and a significantly above average points percentage. The points they have already gained won't go away. With an above average goal differential, it is unlikely that any regression will be enough to overcome the number of points they have accumulated so far in order to cause them to miss the playoffs. While it is true that Wolf's SV% will probably drop off a bit, it is likely that players who are having at or near worst career SH% will improve a similar amount. Zary is likely to have more of his high-danger chances to start going in. To miss the playoffs at this point, the Flames would have to be a significantly worse than average points percentage team for the remainder of the season. Trading away two or more of Andersson, Coleman, Backlund, or possibly Vladar might be able to accomplish that, if it were done significantly before the TDL. Nobody else of consequence is likely to be traded (Kuzmenko is certainly a trade candidate, but his loss at this point would have a negligible effect on the team's performance). At the TDL, they would probably have to trade away three or all four of them.

Of course, a major injury to one or more of their top players could have a similar effect.

Edit: the Flames would have to be passed by all of the Kings, Avs, No Goods, and Canucks in order to miss the playoffs. This may prove to be a difficult task unless they are actively trying.