Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
The problem with that metric is that every game is still generally a toss up in the NHL. .
The best team is 57.0% (+0.78 XG per game) by xGF, the worst team is 42.3% (-0.94 XG per game) so slightly more than 50/50 odds and NHL xG difference is generally within 1 goal difference in most games.
Goaltending and finishing luck can easily make up any expected goal difference over the course of the season.
And really the Flames aren't that bad when looking at xG anyways - in all situations they sit at 51.0% which ranks 14th in the NHL, by points percentage they sit 10th right now. Pretty close to where their xG ranking is.
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Yes. The more I read about xGF the less I think it’s a significant measure of success. It is useful for noticing longer term trends but it has some limitations of usefulness.