Quote:
Originally Posted by UKflames
How do the stats come up with XGF, do you just guess what you think the team will score depending on the strength of the other team, or is it an average?
Just sounds like a made up stat but probably isn't.
|
It’s pretty cool
Think about basing expected goals on shot counts. If average league save percentage is .900, then you expect one of every 10 shots to be a goal, on average.
But some shots are muffins from the point (you’re going to probably stop all 10 more often than not), and other shots are cross crease tap ins
Shots from different locations on the ice have different likelihoods of going in
Out of 100 shots from the point, maybe 3-5 go in, whereas out of 100 shots from the slot, maybe (fur example) 15-25 go in
Is the shot a rebound? Was there a pass within the preceding x seconds?
They look at measurable events
It is flawed because of what you can’t measure (ex. Defensive posture, for example, or goalie position)
It’s a good step towards on predicting expected goals better than just based on averages. It’s an improvement. Lots of work to do still
Best idea is to look at stats with understanding of their strengths and weaknesses
They are useful but far from definitive