Quote:
Originally Posted by Tron_fdc
It's complicated. Depends if he tariffs it. Even then who knows.
In my opinion I doubt it affects it. The US isn't producing enough oil to be self sufficient, so they still need Canadian oil. The refiners that buy it need to refine and sell so they would have to pay the tariff, and pass that to consumers in higher fuel prices because CDN producers (I doubt) are going to eat the tariff. So that is complicated.
If he tariffs it (I heard 10-20%) likely all it is going to do is create inflation via higher fuel costs in the USA. MAYBE it creates an export issue in Canada if for some reason they "unleash" their own industry to fill demand, but that would take time and cost money to retro refining facilities.
It's a global industry though with an outrageous amount of moving parts. Too many "ifs" so I doubt anyone really knows.
|
Its counter intuitive, but Biden was good for oil prices. Under Trump, you see better relations with the oil producing Gulf states. You'll see an end to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. And relaxation of export bans and drilling license bans in the US.
That means lower prices. Some firms will be able to grow in that environment with access to capital, but they can only grow to their infrastructure capacity. That's where Canada struggled last time. One customer, not enough pipelines...etc. That's changed a bit, but there's no new pipelines coming on stream in Canada other than the ones we have now or under construction.
TLDR:
Biden limits new supply = oil price high
Trump brings on supply = oil price lower