Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee
I feel like the polls were way way way way way off. Like I don’t recall seeing any that stated landslide Republican win?
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Many of the polls I saw had the race as a 50/50 chance of either candidate winning. That's pretty much what happened. Trump won a lot of states, but he didn't run away with them. He won Wisconsin 49.7 to 48.8 (29,322 votes), Michigan 49.8-48.3 (81,750 votes), Pennsylvania 50.5-48.5 (134,354), and Georgia 50.7-48.5 (114,970). If 180,000 people, in those four states, voted for Harris instead of voting from Trump, she has 292 votes. That's a landslide victory in your words, not my words. 180,000 votes out of 139,000,000 is about 0.13%. That is about as close as you can get. The election really could have gone either way, and it went Trump's way.
In 538's model, in their final simulation, they had Harris winning 503 times, Trump winning 495 times, and 2 times without a winner. The outcome that occurred the most times had Trump winning 312 to 226. If Trump holds onto the leads in Nevada and Arizona, that's the exact result. That results occurred in 69 of the 538's 1,000 simulations.
tl;dr 538's polling predicted the exact result as their most occurring outcome. If 0.2% of the voters in the six states Trump flipped from 2020 voted for Harris instead of Trump, she wins 306-232. The result was as close as the polls predicted.