Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
You are extremely wrong. All the rural non educated votes always get counted first. It's the red mirage all over again, Harris is going to win both the election and the popular vote. it is now starting to break that way as the big cities votes start to come in. This looks very very good for Harris.
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The statisticians consider that unlikely. Less unlikely then the betting markets but it’s definitely an uphill battle.
It really depends on whether mail in ballots can be processed before election day. In Wisconsin they can so you saw the blue start.
Pensylvania they start counting mail in votes at the start of election day so they get the big blue wave to start then probably a blue wave to end when the rest come over night. The models like the needle are supposed to account for this but like in 2020 there can be herding with it.
So Trump is a favourite with the data we have. Probably not the 90% favourite polymaret has him at.