Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
I think election accuracy is a lot like mutual fund performance. You have a few good years in a row and people start to believe you. And since the headline is all people remember you really just had to say Trump in 2016 and Bush in 2000 and you probably got 6 in a row. So say 50/50 for bush and gore and 1/4 for Trump means 1/8 people perhaps 1/20 once you add up the other elections of always being right.
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while true, Bouzy still was adamant early there wouldn't be a red wave in 2022 and things like that. I'll take your point when it comes to someone like Allan Lichtman, whose model is severly outdated IMO but still might be right once again. But Bouzy was actually really precise in midterms, senate and congress races too IIRC. Doesn't have to hold up this time obviously, but given his strong track record I was surprised to see such an overly blue map from him. Would be happy if he was right though