In terms of tracking what’s going on this 538 site should be really useful. It uses 2020 data to track on a county by county basis the returns we should expect if the state was tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...on-benchmarks/
There is also the NYT Needle which you need to make a free (I think) account to view
https://www.nytimes.com/article/elec...ts-needle.html