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Originally Posted by activeStick
I can't remember if it was the 2016 or 2020 election (thinking 2016), but I remember you were a wealth of knowledge for one of those elections, with really solid, in-depth and reasonable takes.
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It might have been both, but to be totally honest I have not spent anywhere near the same amount of time looking at the polling data for this election—I look at Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin once in a while, but that’s about it. All I know is he’s saying it’s 50/50 which given who the candidates are sort of blows my mind.
There is a bit of an interesting possible story about pollster methodology and whether the changes they made since 2020 to their methodologies is actually going to make them underestimate Harris (Nate Cohn of the NYT had an interesting article about it — it has to do with weighting for recalled vote in 2020), but to be honest I can’t speak intelligently about that either. If Harris outperforms her polls that may turn into the post-election story, but honestly who knows?