Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
I think the wash trading here is being misinterpreted as artificially inflating trumps odds. In a regular stock pump and dump scheme the wash trading increases prices of stocks by creating the appearance of demand to buy and sell the commodity which draws in other people to buy and sell the commodity. I don’t think in a betting market you would have the same affect as there isn’t a fixed volume of stock available.
None of the articles are stating that it artificially changes odds instead just the apparent demand
https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/3...g-researchers/
Harris up to 42% on polymarket and at 48% on 538. That’s effectively the same prediction. |
My take is that it renders it manipulated and unreliable as a predictive market. Wash trading is going to create some momentum for the betting favorite at the time that will move it to a stronger favorite and get some coat-tails when they see more money going to the favorite.
It seems likely there was some manipulation that spiked Trump's odds on Polymarket and DJT's price and they fed upon each other. Now they are both going back to a corrected market value (whatever that is for DJT
)