Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Would you agree that final result in Pennsylvania will be within 3 points?
If so would a 52% - 38% Harris advantage in Pennsylvania early voting make you change your opinion on it. It’s still a very big spread that would lead one to make the same types of conclusions. Or put another way. What early voting advantage does Harris need in Pensylvania for it to suggest to you that she’s winning. I don’t think there is a basis to establish that number.
2020 with Trump suppressing early voting was 64-27-10 vs 57 - 33 - 10
Here’s all the data to play with
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v...-early-voting/
I agree with your assessment of the polling. Ultimately I don’t think you can get a general sense of who will win the 7 swing states with current data. |
I'm using the 2020 final results as a baseline, then looking at the early vote to indicate which way the 2024 result might move from the 2020 result.
So in PA, with Biden winning by a point, and Harris up by a lot in the early vote, it would indicate that she'll win the state by more than Biden did. But then you look at the polls and they mostly say Trump will win the state by a small margin. So factoring all that together, I reach a prediction of a slim Harris win, in the neighborhood of Biden's result last time.