Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
If your goal is to be better than an average error of 4% early voting doesn’t appear to be the metric to use.
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My goal is to get a general sense of who is going to win each state.
The polls have me confused. PA has gone back and forth, and while the polls in 2016 and 2020 heavily underestimated Trump's support, they've made aggressive adjustments to make up for that this time around. Who knows if they've over adjusted, under adjusted, or got it just right? It's honestly impossible to know.
It's also harder than ever to get people to answer the phone and answer the poll questions. So who knows about the accuracy even in the highest quality polls? Even the best pollsters have to phone a gazillion people just to get 1000 or 2000 people willing to pick up and answer.
And like you said, a single margin of error is the difference between a blowout for one side and a blowout for the other.
I'd rather look at actual votes from actual voters as an indicator of what might happen. While it's far from perfect, so are the polls.
PA for example, showing 58% to 32% lead for Democrats with over 1.5 million votes in. Is Trump going to overcome that to win the state? Maybe, but it seems like Harris has the inside track in that state. Just like Trump has it in TX and FL.