Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Florida and Virginia are not in play unless it's a total landslide. And if it is, those states won't matter at all.
That really is the point, to identify which states are the tipping point. If the Dems have enough support to win some of the other toss-up states, then really no way to see them losing MI, WI or PA.
You should play around with the numbers. I can't see any plausible scenario where the Dems lose one of those states but win some of the other ones. Win Goergia but lose Michigan? Not likely at all.
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The Trump factor makes a lot of EC math confusing. Trump hurts Republicans in GA,VA, NC, but helps them in MI, WI, PA and FL. A moderate, generic Republican could easily win GA,VA,NC but lose MI,WI,PA. Trump could realistically lose GA,VA, and NC, but pickup some or all of MI,WI,PA.