Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
The only two questions that really matter for this election are
1) Who will turn out. Trump is going hard after low propensity voters, it's a big risk.
2) Who will have more cross party voters. Harris feels she's lost a portion of traditionally union traditionally dem voters (white working class), so she has pivoted hard towards lost republicans. It's a risky strategy.
The other 92% of the electorate is locked in, It's the 8% above.
Given that early turnout numbers do a bad job of telling you if Trumps bet paid off, and a horrible job of telling you if Harris' bet paid off, they are particularly un-meaningful at this time.
|
Just because the campaigns are making plays for those voters, doesn't mean the election will necessarily come down to those voters. And even if one campaign or the other (or both) get the voters they're trying to court, it doesn't necessarily mean they'll win the election.
Maybe the cake is already baked. Maybe one team already has the support they need to win and the other is screwed. Or maybe not. We don't know.
And I don't think Harris is solely campaigning for moderate republicans. There's quite a bit in her policy platform (and her speeches) for progressives and liberals to like.
I think it's wrong to dismiss the early vote. I don't think the election boils down to just the groups you mentioned. For instance the female vote, angered by the overturning of Roe, is a big X factor. We don't know how many Harris votes that will translate to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
No I absolutely disagree. Early voting is not a representative sample and therefore on its own, is nowhere near as indicative as a high quality poll.
That's great that more registered Republicans are voting early but unless you compare to previous trends, it's not telling you anything. What do you think bigger early voting numbers in Texas are telling you?
|
How is early voting not a representative sample?
The argument of "early vote skews Democratic due to reasons x, y, and z" doesn't seem to apply this year. There's no apparent skew to the Democrats when you look at the numbers. If anything, there might be a Republican skew when you look at Texas for example.