Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Both sites have trump with a marginally higher probability of winning Pennsylvania. The 538 model and your projection are saying the same thing. There is no difference between saying Harris buy a fraction of a point and saying a 52% prob of Trump winning and a 48% chnace of Harris winning.
So you actually agree with the models and polling within the accuracy of the data.
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Everyone knows it's going to be close. What we're trying to sort out is who is actually
going to win the state. Almost all of the recent polls (Oct. 20 and onward) have Trump winning or a tied result. Only one poll has Harris by 1.
On the other hand, the early vote shows Dems with a big lead in PA. Obviously that lead will shrink as more of the vote comes in, but it doesn't seem likely that the state swings to Trump.