Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.
Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.
|
The polls have clearly altered their methodology. The best evidence of that is that the disparity between mainstream pollsters (which significantly underestimated Trump) and right-wing pollsters (which tended to overestimate Trump) have narrowed significantly.
Take Pennsylvania for example. In 2020, the highest rated pollsters (e.g. NY Times/Siena, ABC, Monmouth, etc.) had Biden leading by 5-8 points while pollsters like Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage had Trump leading by 1-2 points. The end result was Biden winning by 1.8 points.
In 2024, those right-wing pollsters are only showing a very slight change compared to 2020, with Trump leading by 2-3 points. But now with those high-rated pollsters, instead of showing the race only shifting about a point in Trump's favor vs. their 2020 numbers (like the right-wing pollsters are showing) they're showing the race being effectively tied, which would be a 5-8 point move in Trump's favor compared to 2020.