Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
I never said they were. I'm just saying that if Trump is winning those states by 10-15 points, it could be a bad sign of what's to come in the country as a whole.
Well aware of this. But this election cycle is different from 2020. In 2020, Trump told his supporters not to vote by mail and not to vote early. This time around, he's encouraging all voting methods. That's why this year's early vote is much more likely to be somewhat in line with the final election results than any early vote in the past.
And look at the share of the votes that have been cast thus far: Democrats have a 2 point lead. That's more or less in line with what the final popular vote is likely to be.
So, while it's still not a reliable predictor, it's much more reliable than partisan polls or silly betting odds.
It's likely to be much higher this time. For example, there were 11.2M votes cast in Texas last time. There are already 6.2M cast this time!
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No I absolutely disagree. Early voting is not a representative sample and therefore on its own, is nowhere near as indicative as a high quality poll.
That's great that more registered Republicans are voting early but unless you compare to previous trends, it's not telling you anything. What do you think bigger early voting numbers in Texas are telling you?