Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
Does cross-party voting play a big role in these races, or does it more or less cancel out? I would think it does cancel out, not exactly, but roughly. In this election there will be disaffected Rs voting for Harris, but there will also be (if what we're hearing is true) quite a number of Latino men registered as Dems voting for Trump.
A much larger factor for each party, I think, is getting your base to turn out. Hillary lost in 2016 due to a lack of voter turnout from the Dem base in the 3 key states. In 2020 the Dems turned out just enough of their base to win. Ultimately I think the overturning of Roe is helping with Dem turnout this year, and will be what gets Harris over the finish line, if just barely.
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The only two questions that really matter for this election are
1) Who will turn out. Trump is going hard after low propensity voters, it's a big risk.
2) Who will have more cross party voters. Harris feels she's lost a portion of traditionally union traditionally dem voters (white working class), so she has pivoted hard towards lost republicans. It's a risky strategy.
The other 92% of the electorate is locked in, It's the 8% above.
Given that early turnout numbers do a bad job of telling you if Trumps bet paid off, and a horrible job of telling you if Harris' bet paid off, they are particularly un-meaningful at this time.