Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
Not to say either of those states are in play but in Florida the reps have a 6 point advantage in voter registration. Texas I couldn't find data, but I assume it's worse. That said while seemingly in the midst of a party re-alignment, and Harris pretty explicitly targeting anti-trump republicans accepting endorsements from the Cheneys and Romney. So if She is going to do better in some states she will need to win republicans (and she will win many repbulican votes). Likewise with a large registration edge for Dems in Penn. and an expected 1 point margin, it's likely many voters will vote outside of party lines. This is why early voting data if hard to look at as meaningful.
It would probably be a lot more useful to look at early vote share by district compared to a prior year. for example, If Atlanta holds a larger share of early voting this year than in 2020 when compaired to rural Georgia, I would buy that as a very good sign for Dems. I'm not sure if that kind of data exists.
|
Does cross-party voting play a big role in these races, or does it more or less cancel out? I would think it does cancel out, not exactly, but roughly. In this election there will be disaffected Rs voting for Harris, but there will also be (if what we're hearing is true) quite a number of Latino men registered as Dems voting for Trump.
A much larger factor for each party, I think, is getting your base to turn out. Hillary lost in 2016 due to a lack of voter turnout from the Dem base in the 3 key states. In 2020 the Dems turned out just enough of their base to win. Ultimately I think the overturning of Roe is helping with Dem turnout this year, and will be what gets Harris over the finish line, if just barely.