Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
I never said it was. But I do put a lot more stock in these numbers than betting markets flooded with dumb money.
Some potential warning signs for Harris: 6.2 million people have voted in Texas, where Rs lead by a margin of 52% to 37%. In Florida, 5.1 million votes have been cast, and Rs lead 45% to 34%.
That said, Harris has significant leads in the blue wall states. I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but my heart is in my mouth.
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Not to say either of those states are in play but in Florida the reps have a 6 point advantage in voter registration. Texas I couldn't find data, but I assume it's worse. That said while seemingly in the midst of a party re-alignment, and Harris pretty explicitly targeting anti-trump republicans accepting endorsements from the Cheneys and Romney. So if She is going to do better in some states she will need to win republicans (and she
will win many repbulican votes). Likewise with a large registration edge for Dems in Penn. and an expected 1 point margin, it's likely many voters will vote outside of party lines. This is why early voting data if hard to look at as meaningful.
It would probably be a lot more useful to look at early vote share by district compared to a prior year. for example, If Atlanta holds a larger share of early voting this year than in 2020 when compaired to rural Georgia, I would buy that as a very good sign for Dems. I'm not sure if that kind of data exists.