Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
I think you missed the point of my 2-point-lead comment. I was just commenting on the plausibility of the early votes being an indicator of how things will ultimately unfold. A 2 point popular vote lead is likely in the ballpark of where the final number will be. It's been said that leaks in support from CA and NY is the reason for the dip from 2020. So a smaller win in popular vote does not necessarily mean a lower chance of winning the swing states.
As for the polls, there are problems this year that make it hard for me to take them too seriously. They're adjusting quite aggressively to make up for the errors in 2016 and 2020. And some of them are fake right wing polls meant to deliberately boost the perception of an imminent Trump win.
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I agree with not using the RCP but the 538 and Silver report are showing a very similar number of about Harris 1.4 and Harris +1.2. So early vote + 2 is slightly more favourable but really all the same number. Harris plus 2 is really the coin flip number in these models of support.
I see the the early voting data as not changing the message of this race is still two close to call and is inline with quality polling.