Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Dem by two is somewhere between a 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip which is exactly what the betting markets and polls are predicting.
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There's oceans of difference between 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip.
If you look at RealClearPolling, it is flooded with right-wing partisan polls and is therefore predicting a Trump win. The betting odds are, well, betting odds.
I think more can be read from the early voting data than polls or betting odds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The one potential saving grace of a Trump presidency is his own incompetence. People can manipulate him through praise but he still does things his way. The project 2025 guys directly holding power is far scarier.
So I do think there is a window where Trumps lack of stamina prevents significant change and his inability hold on to power by going senile ensures the next election is carried out on fairish terms.
Trumps death or incapacitation in office is the worst case outcome.
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Trump is not making it through a 4 year term. If he wins, a Project 2025 ghoul (be it Vance or someone else) is taking over at some point.