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Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Texas and Florida are not in play.
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I never said they were. I'm just saying that if Trump is winning those states by 10-15 points, it could be a bad sign of what's to come in the country as a whole.
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I think what you’re not looking at is that early voters are not representative of the general electorate. Dems win early voting since it’s far more urban. Since there seems to be some indication that early voting is skewing more Republican than previous elections, that is a troubling sign for Dems. Or it may mean nothing and just a trend within each voting group.
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Well aware of this. But this election cycle is different from 2020. In 2020, Trump told his supporters not to vote by mail and not to vote early. This time around, he's encouraging all voting methods. That's why this year's early vote is much more likely to be somewhat in line with the final election results than any early vote in the past.
And look at the share of the votes that have been cast thus far: Democrats have a 2 point lead. That's more or less in line with what the final popular vote is likely to be.
So, while it's still not a reliable predictor, it's much more reliable than partisan polls or silly betting odds.
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Originally Posted by Rutuu
With that said early voting is only 30% of the vote.
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It's likely to be much higher this time. For example, there were 11.2M votes cast in Texas last time. There are already 6.2M cast this time!