Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
No, that's not how dependent events work. They are likely to vote similar to each other. Therefore it's closer to 1 coinflip than 3.
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I don't see things breaking her way here at all. Trump has a massive lead in all of the swing states bar Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is no room for error for Harris.
Trump wins BOTH Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Yes +127
No -159
Trump wins BOTH Michigan and Wisconsin?
Yes +155
No -195
It is very unlikely that either candidate sweeps all three. Far more likely is that Harris wins Michigan but loses one of the other two, meaning Trump wins the election.