Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
We don’t know that more women are voting. We know that more women are early voting. Record early voting is a function of early voting being more accessible and more known. And it’s still not know whether high early voting numbers just canabalize election day turnout or enhance turnout.
If the above items are determative and was statistically significant there would be modelers using those values as part of the fundementals type analysis. These indicators are not better than polling.
If you look at things like polls and polymarket you accept that there is noise. Did Harris gain 5% likelihood to win today? No it’s just noise.
I disagree with you that polls don’t tell us anything. They told us Biden was a prohibitive favourite, that Hillary has a 1/4 chance of loosing, that Obama was going to win both.
Without polling your prior of teams sports it’s 50/50 would have been wrong in every election this cycle.
Trump being accused of sexual assault is more common than polling updates.
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Well with more early voting you have shorter lines on election day which will promote higher turnout. Its also a guaranteed vote vs. sickness, weather, car breaking down ect. Turnout will be high.
I mean if your argument is "either side might win its 50/50" there is not much of a debate to be had. I think Trumps surge is BS and I think we will see as much in 2 weeks.