Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
The case for drafting top-4 isn’t that it makes you likely to win the Cup. It’s that it makes you more likely to win the Cup than not drafting in the top-4.
If diving to the bottom of the standings gives you a 40 per cent chance of icing a contender once the rebuild matures, and not picking at the top of the draft gives you a 25 per cent chance of contending in that timeframe, then the tank strategy is the better strategy - even if it’s unlikely to make you a contender.
I’m having flashbacks to the CP Iginla Rebuild Wars (2009-12).
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Okay, yeah - if those numbers are in any way accurate. But they're not, so it isn't much of an argument. Let's do the same thing, making up different numbers:
"If diving to the bottom of the standings gives you a 40 per cent chance of icing a contender once the rebuild matures, and not picking at the top of the draft gives you a 38 per cent chance of contending in that timeframe, then the tank strategy is the better strategy"
Doesn't quite have the same impact.