Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
I only looked at the standings, not who actually picked first.
And it's clear the point totals over the last 5 or so years are worse than the 10 years before that.
And I really just focused on the 3 worse teams each year.
Regardless of whether Calgary falters from the nice start, I don't see then as SJ/Chicago/Anaheim bad from the last few years. They are going to be hard pressed falling to that level even if they trade Andersson. Their goaltending would need to falter quite badly I think for that to occur.
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But why 5 years? I looked at since 2006 draft which was the first draft in the salary cap era. If you look at last 5 years you are correct, most bottom 3 teams have been less than 66 points. Only 3 out of 15 are 66 or better.
But if you go back 6, the bottom e in 2019 were 64, 71 and 72.
Even with a the bottom teams being worse in the last 9 years for the first 10 years of the cap era, only 5 of 9 last place teams pick 1st. 2 outside of the bottom 3 picked 1st. COVID year was set up different though so the NYR lottery win probably shouldn't count.
2 teams in the last 9 years that finished last also picked outside the top 3 picks. Detroit and Colorado both had sub 50 point seasons and 2 of the 3 worst seasons in the cap era and lost the lottery 3 times.
There is risk going too far with the tank, I believe the Flames can get a top 3 picks and still be around a 70 point team. If they overachieve this year, maybe they move some unmovable guys and get that top 3 pick next year.
I don't think it is a bad thing we started well so far. It's early
Moves made in the off season show no sign of anyone tanking either.