My preference is for this team to bottom out into a top 3 pick this year, and next year. Too early to tell if that happens with this start or not.
I think the turnaround will be quick here in Calgary if that happens. This team is a very good drafting and development team. They continually find players deep in the draft. The prospect pools is deep, but without 'star power'. That's what I think is missing long-term.
Some of the already drafted prospects - even those that are looking good at the moment - will fail. Some will exceed expectations. I think Conroy has done an excellent job of stocking up on picks and prospects. I just think that this organization needs a couple of star players.
My biggest fear isn't becoming Buffalo. It is becoming the Islanders. I don't think that Calgary could end up as bad as Buffalo has been even if they tried to do a scorched-earth rebuild (which I don't support). I just think that Buffalo has been so incredibly mismanaged over the years. They went from Tim Murray in 2014 to Jason Botterill in 2017 to Kevyn Adams in 2020. Coaches were even worse - Dany Bylsma in 2015, to Phil Housley in 2017, to Ralph Kruger in 2019, to Don Granato in 2021, to Lindy Ruff this season (which I think will probably create some stability there finally).
I don't think they drafted well enough, and thanks to Tim Murray, they even started their relationship with Eichel on a frosty note when he lamented publicly about losing the draft and having to settle with Eichel instead of McDavid.
I don't worry about Buffalo. I include them with Arizona, with Edmonton (without McDavid, will they be better than Buffalo?) - just mismanaged teams. It doesn't matter if they refused to rebuild, decided to rebuild or went through a scorched-earth rebuild - they are what happens when you allow a team to become so completely mismanaged for too long.
i also think that sometimes a team will just continue to try and compete, trade away too many valuable futures in trying to remain competitive (or worse, squander those assets by drafting and developing terribly), and then find themselves in a scorched earth rebuild whether or not they wanted one. That's the tough ones you end up in. This is sort of what happened to Edmonton. I really think this happened to Buffalo in the first place. I was getting worried about this with Treliving as well as he was sending a lot of assets out, especially towards the end.
I think there are certain things that you can do to mitigate how long and hard a rebuild is, and trying to continue winning when you can't by throwing assets at it for too long ensures a long and painful rebuild. I think Conroy did a LOT of heavy lifting last year (and his first year as a GM, which was extremely impressive in hindsight). He is hyper-focused on building through the draft which I really like as I really do think it is leveraging the greatest strength of this organization, and I also think that having a bunch of kids growing up together makes for a better team overall. However, it won't be his only means. If he finds something that fits for a reasonable cost, then great. It is not throwing assets away. It is still using assets towards building a good team.
I am curious how it all unfolds. It is tough to compete in this league without top-tier talent now.
My biggest fear without top talent is that a team without it has to compete so much harder than teams with it. I imagine players get more burnt-out and even have higher rates of injury playing like this. In the regular season, how often do you see a team without much talent out-shooting and out-competing a talented team, only for the opposing players to suddenly decide to crank it up and score 2 or 3 goals in a period and end up winning a game? Come playoff time, it is extremely difficult to out-compete teams then. Talent + Coaching + Health + Bounces (luck) decide the winners. Rarely do I see a team suddenly not compete, unless they are just being blown out game after game and the series is 3-0 or 3-1.
The good news is that Calgary has a good history of finding very good players through the draft. I would just feel a whole lot better overall if Calgary finds a way to draft one of the top centres at least from the next couple of drafts. It doesn't guarantee a cup - or anything else at all - but somehow I would simply feel better. It is going to be curious to see how this season turns out. I still feel a top 3-5 pick is on the table, but winning and losing can both snowball quickly. Win or lose, this team is fun, and that's the most important thing to me.
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