Quote:
Originally Posted by traptor
But by far the highest chance of getting a star player in their prime is to draft them in the top of the draft and develop them.
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The chance of a pick developing into a star player is highest for the earliest picks in the draft, obviously.
But what percentage of those star players come from the first three picks, as opposed to the remaining 200-odd? And what percentage of those first three picks don't, in fact, develop into the kind of star you're looking for?
At this point, it's pretty clear that some fans just want a scorched-earth rebuild no matter what, and will cherry-pick any evidence that seems at first sight to support it – whether the numbers actually check out or not.