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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
There’s a difference between having a player who was a top pick at some point on your roster and having an elite player who you drafted on your roster. Guys like Gudbranson get moved around a lot. Traptor’s analysis took that into account by considering when they were drafted and by who.
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Sure. But there's no guarantee that having that high pick will get you that elite player, as guys like Gudbranson prove.
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Nobody is denying there’s a huge amount of luck in the draft lottery and winning the Cup. All an NHL team’s braintrust can do is tweak the odds a few percentage points in their favour.
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The data suggest that scorched-earth rebuilds don't even accomplish that much. Furthermore, contrary to the scorched-earth fans, even if you never do a scorched-earth rebuild, that doesn't reduce your odds to zero.
I honestly wonder if some fans think the Hockey Gods are real and operate a win bank to guarantee that every team comes out exactly .500 in the long run. If that were true, you could deposit losses in your account and withdraw wins later on, and hey presto! Instant Stanley Cup for the only guy in the world smart enough to figure out this blazingly obvious and simple strategy.
Except that there is no such bank, and no such strategy, and the skills needed to run a professional sports franchise are neither obvious nor simple.