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Originally Posted by Jay Random
But there is no such strong correlation. Going from memory of the last time I ran these numbers: Nine out of ten Stanley Cup winners have a top-three pick on the winning roster… but so do nine out of ten teams league-wide. Having picked high (or acquired someone else's high pick) doesn't set you apart, and doesn't improve your odds. It's mostly about how you assemble your team after that – and whether you have luck. Nobody ever made it through a 16-team NHL playoff bracket without the benefit of luck.
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There’s a difference between having a player who was a top pick at some point on your roster and having an elite player who you drafted on your roster. Guys like Gudbranson get moved around a lot. Traptor’s analysis took that into account by considering when they were drafted and by who.
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12 teams didn't get a top 4 pick between 2004-2014. None of them went on to win a cup between 2014-2024.
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Nobody is denying there’s a huge amount of luck in the draft lottery and winning the Cup. All an NHL team’s braintrust can do is tweak the odds a few percentage points in their favour.