Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueCharlton
This is a fair point. There are a lot of "tank" rebuilding failures. It has to be done correctly and you certainly need luck as well.
That being said, the BEST odds to getting that game-breaking, young, cheap talent is in the top 5 of the draft. If this is supplemented with good vets and strong team building and ALSO drafting some talent a little bit later in the draft, then you get closer to that cup contender.
The reason people say you need a top 5 pick is because basically every single Stanley cup winner over the past 20 years and longer has at least one or more top picks, often times a top 3 pick as a major part of the core. Most of these are internally drafted, some of them are trades.
Tanking or acquiring top end talent through other means (much harder to do without seriously subtracting from your team) ultimately gives you the BEST chance (not a guaranteed chance) of having future success at winning the cup. If you do not believe me, please go through the exercise and look back at the cup winners. How many of them bottomed out at some point, versus built through middling picks in the draft?
It isn't the ONLY ingredient to creating a winning team, I agree you need a solid culture and lots of other things to get there, but without that talent I feel like its trying to make a pizza without dough.
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Yes, I acknowledge that the best way to acquire those game breaking talents is through the draft, particularly at the top. Hard to refute that. I don’t believe it to be the only way though. It’s not written in stone.
Is it completely inconceivable that over the next 3-5 years the Flames don’t get a top 5 pick but still turn out to be a cup contender? They had just had what’s been described by those in this market and in others as one of the strongest drafts in the recent past. They’ve got, as it stands right now, two firsts this year and next. If I had to bet, they’re likely to add up that.
Would a top 5 pick be a nice add? 100% it would but that’s not in the Flames control short of completely liquidating their roster, which, I think, is an unrealistic expectation and there’s no evidence to suggest they’re about to.