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Originally Posted by TOfan
Look at Detroit. They’ve been at/near the bottom for several years and all it’s got them is one top 5 pick, Lukas Raymond.
On the other hand teams like Dallas (Hiskanen), Carolina (Svechnikov), Edmonton (McDavid) benefited from nothing more than simple dumb luck. The lottery is nothing more than just that. Not only do you need to win the lottery, you need to win it in the right year. You could win the lottery and end up with RNH. Fine player but he’s not going to have the impact of a Bedard, Celebrini, or a McKenna.
I think Conroy’s going about this in the right way. You prioritize competitiveness and culture over a roll of the dice. He’s doing what makes sense to stock the cupboards with picks and prospects. That’s smart. If, for one reason or the other, the bottom falls out this season or next, you recognize the state of the team and maybe you do trade Rasmus Andersson and gently steer the ship towards finishing in a lower spot.
Goes without saying but the draft is also invariable and random. Some people here are saying you can’t build a winner without a top five pick. Okay, if you do a redraft of 2016, where does Tkachuk go? Pretty solid case to be made he goes second overall. How about 2011? Gaudreau looks like a top 5 pick in that draft, top 10 at least.
Every year, or at least many years, there are guys who get picked after the first 5 that in retrospect should have gone top 5. It will be interesting to see in five years or so what people think about where guys like Michkov, Demidov, and Parekh could have/should have gone.
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The key now is sticking to a long term vision regardless of the results.
The results are a nice benefit but don't start changing the vision because if it and moving futures for win now assets or trying to accelerate your timeline.
That's what they did after 14-15.
Winning is fine as long as they don't go crazy and make a bunch of win now trades or sign over priced free agents.