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Originally Posted by NegativeSpace
It is also interesting to look at the teams that have been historically drafting high for the past 10 years. You do not see a list of the best teams in the league. It’s really a mixed bag. Some teams were able to turn it around. Some teams are still looking for the answer. Drafting high is for bad teams. That sometimes helps those teams get better. Florida is bell of the ball now but it wasn’t looking great for quite a while. They were consistently asking how to beat Tampa until they did. Is the goal to trade your highest point producer and top 3 pick for a top 6 pick that is younger but brings a different dimension? Florida honestly drafted well and took advantage of other teams - Calgary and Buffalo primarily - to get their remaining core players. Is that something that requires absolutely top 10 picks?
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Making several top picks is no guarantee of success. But it does increase the odds of putting together an elite core that contends for years, rather than a core good enough to go on a cinderella run.
Compare the Blues the and Avs. The Blues never tanked. They put together a team that was good enough to go win a Cup. And now they’re mediocre again, and look likely to be mediocre for a good long while. The Avs tanked, including a historically awful season. They put together an elite core. And they’ve won one Cup - same as the Blues. So have both franchises had about equal success? I’d argue the Avs have been the more successful team, and may still have another Cup run or two in them if they can manage to get healthy.
Yes, some teams that tank stay stuck at the bottom for a long time. High picks do not guarantee an elite core. But lots of teams that never tank remain stuck in mediocrity for a long time. The Wild, Flames, Flyers, and Islanders. Rarely really bad. Rarely a genuine threat to win the President’s trophy or the Cup (and none of them seem likely to turn that around any time soon).
The Athletic recently did a long interview with Craig Leipold, owner of the Wild. He said the team has never tanked or done a sustained rebuild, and that they never would as long as he was owner. Their strategy going forward is to build around Kaprizov, Boldy, and Faber. Which doesn’t seem crazy on the face of it. And no doubt optimistic Wild fans can imagine them winning a Cup around that core. As an outsider, it seems less likely than the Ducks emerging as an elite team in the next 5-6 years. But I guess we’ll see.