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Originally Posted by Sliver
Yeah, I've been on that page for a long time, too. It is in the west's best interests to aid Ukraine in bleeding Russia. I know I don't want my 18-year-old heading over there, so I don't expect any other westerner to want their kid going to Ukraine, either.
Also no point in letting Ukraine in NATO. They're a better buffer for us between Russia and NATO countries as is.
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Buffer countries are stupid. If russia so desperately wants a buffer zone, they can implement a buffer zone in their own stupidly large country on their western border. They already have land borders with 6 NATO countries and there certainly is no outcry that those should be buffer countries.
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That perspective is, of course, ice cold toward Ukraine and their people; however, from a strategic perspective that advances - and preserves - the lives of people in the west I'd say the west is doing things well so far.
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The west is not doing things well, no matter what kind of hopium is being ingested. There is such a massive domino effect in all of this that gets ignored if we simply look at is like all that is happening is russia is being bled out. Due to this slow boil-the-frog policy, this has resulted in a massive advancement in drone warfare in which russia themselves are probably the biggest beneficiary of this technology and knowledge. They are literally teaching their operators how to terrorize by hunting down civilians and cars across the border. That should horrify anybody who imagines what terrorism will be like down the road.
We laugh at russia getting help from NK, but the other side of the coin is that while NK has some baby nukes that lack a sturdy delivery system, they are now in a position to get that kind of help and tech from russia. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but we can't pretend that discussion hasn't been had. Was that part of the plan when NATO sat down and decided to drip feed aid, that a hostile nuclear power gets stronger?
Iran is almost certainly going to get help from russia on their own nuclear program. We joke that they've been "4 weeks away" for the past 20 years, but now there is actually incentive to accomplish this and a reliable partner to make it happen. I can't imagine that was part of the west's plan either. Again, time will tell if this happens. Huge risk to take simply to burn a bunch of old tanks in a field in Siberia.
The wave of UA refugees that have ripped through Europe has caused a lot of strain, and a russian victory means even more will come. Is the EU happy to bleed out a bunch of useless tanks in a field in Siberia in exchange for the financial cost waves of refugees pouring over?
This isn't even mentioning China's own aspirations to potentially try to take Taiwan one day. Had the west sacked up and helped Ukraine to put a stop to russian advances back in the fall of '22, they would have realized the west doesn't fck around and it's not worth the risk. Instead, China is watching intently on the west's reaction to this and measuring how long western aid will last before they get bored. If western aid tails off, this will embody China even more.
I don't see any kind of 4D chess plan being played here. I think the west thought russia would back off when the gas deliveries got diverted elsewhere and the sanctions began to take effect. But the west also forgot that the human greed element that comes into play and russia simply makes deals with countries like Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, India and China to easily circumvent said sanctions. Now they are scrambling to sell this as a bleed-them-out approach where burning off a bunch of old tanks in a field is Siberia in exchange for Ukrainian lives is somehow a good thing.
Sorry for the long rant. I just think it's a bit short sighted to think that somehow things are going all good because some rusty tanks are being burned through and sacrificing the lives of people you don't know will keep your own family safe. Plenty of us here have family there and don't see if that way. The domino effects I mentioned are an even bigger risk down the road and I think the west screwed up badly in those regards, not taking those into consideration.