We're really starting to see the culmination point of the war coming. 2025 is likely to be the decisive year, even if it isn't necessarily the final year. As APN says here, signs of attrition are easy to see on both sides.
On one hand, Russia stockpiles have started to show real signs of depletion, and we don't really know if Russia can hold on without them. On the other hand, we have the US election which will affect what kind of support Ukraine is going to get. (It might end up being much less decisive than people expect, but it will still have some effect.)
On both sides, war weariness is really starting to kick in and morale is down. Russian economy is still a bit of a house of cards.
All end scenarios are still on the table (a frozen war, a stalemate peace, a Russian victory and a Ukrainian victory). Ukraine is I think less likely to completely collapse, simply because the stakes are just so much higher for them, but if nothing changes in the war during 2025, I think both sides will start giving up on finding ways to win and start looking for ways out.
If Harris wins, I think that's it for Russias chance to win, but it doesn't necessarily mean Ukraine will win. If Trump wins, it's likely the same in reverse... or worse. Trump is just much more unpredictable.
By this time next year, I think everyone will be able tell where this is going, and that will be the beginning of the end.
|