It doesn't really seem to matter... if nothing much happens for a while and people aren't focused on the election and are distracted by other things, Trump gains. If there's big election news and people are closely focused on the horserace, unless the news is exclusively bad for Trump, it appears Trump gains. So "october surprises", no matter how manufactured, are more likely on balance to hurt Harris.
There are just far too many idiots down there.
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