Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
I can't imagine the demographics of Polymarket betters comes anywhere close to representing the population in general, so it's about as useful as Musk's Xitter polls. Probably even less so.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
uneducated white males are the #1 gambling demographic
sound familiar?
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It doesn’t have to be the same demographic.
If you believe that elections are predictable
And
You believe there are intelligent gamblers trying to make money of the election
Then polymarket will show an accuracy within the Vig of the system.
It comes down to how efficient of a market is political betting. If you are confident in another forecast you should be betting against the poly market average which will drive the price toward the better forecast. This keeps the poly market average within the uncertainty of the outcome.
This is demonstrated by polymarket and 538 and pretty much all the models carrying the same position. The race is more or less a coin flip.