https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/new-york/
Not really a huge body of evidence, but polling shows he has a good chance of improving his margins on 2020, as there really hasn't been a single poll below his 2020 results.
And I'm not saying Trump will win the popular vote, I continue to think the most likely thing is that he loses both the EC & PV. But assuming a world where we already know he had won the EC, I would say he is the odds on favorite for the PV at that point in time, largely because we should expect Harris to run up smaller margins in her best states.