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Jacks · 09-18-2024, 07:28 AM

I really wouldn't be surprised to see an election this winter, or in the spring at the latest.

The NDP have really painted themselves into a corner with all the extreme rhetoric towards the Liberals. All they had to do was say they are leaving the Supply/Confidence deal because they don't think they can get any more from the Liberals and that they want to start communicating to Canadians how they need a mandate in order to make true change, fight for working people, etc etc. Instead Singh went over the top painting the Liberals as the worst thing ever and they need to go asap. He's going to look foolish every time he votes confidence in them.

Bloc are interesting. You'd think that they would rather deal with the Liberals than a majority CPC government but would they really? At the moment the Bloc could easily win a bunch more seats in Quebec if an election were held soon. They aren't going to make threats right now until they see what the Liberals are going to offer for their support but I saw a scrum this morning (somewhere) where Blanchet was saying that people tell him every day that they want an election. If the Liberals don't give him a lot he can easily justify voting no confidence. The Bloc's situation is looking pretty rosy right now and is unlikely to get any better in the next year.

These parties have to be looking at an election as an inevitability. If they go sooner they fight against a weakened Liberal party headed by Trudeau who is not popular to put it nicely. If they wait they run the risk of Trudeau stepping down, if he does that he will surely prorogue and the Liberals will re-emerge in the Spring with a fresh new leader and (likely) a fresh agenda. That could be okay for the NDP/Bloc if the new leader is a Trudeau flunky with baggage or it could be a lot worse if someone strong/charismatic emerges from the contest a la 2015 Trudeau. The Liberals have the most resilient voting base, their rock bottom is still well over 20%, give their supporters an excuse to come home and they will. We've seen many times where their demise was predicted and they came back strong. If you have to go soon anyway might want to go against the devil you know. Things are unlikely to get better for the NDP/Bloc in the short term but they can get a lot worse.

Should be an interesting fall sitting.

09-18-2024, 07:28 AM	#13985
Jacks Franchise Player Join Date: Mar 2011 Exp:	I really wouldn't be surprised to see an election this winter, or in the spring at the latest. The NDP have really painted themselves into a corner with all the extreme rhetoric towards the Liberals. All they had to do was say they are leaving the Supply/Confidence deal because they don't think they can get any more from the Liberals and that they want to start communicating to Canadians how they need a mandate in order to make true change, fight for working people, etc etc. Instead Singh went over the top painting the Liberals as the worst thing ever and they need to go asap. He's going to look foolish every time he votes confidence in them. Bloc are interesting. You'd think that they would rather deal with the Liberals than a majority CPC government but would they really? At the moment the Bloc could easily win a bunch more seats in Quebec if an election were held soon. They aren't going to make threats right now until they see what the Liberals are going to offer for their support but I saw a scrum this morning (somewhere) where Blanchet was saying that people tell him every day that they want an election. If the Liberals don't give him a lot he can easily justify voting no confidence. The Bloc's situation is looking pretty rosy right now and is unlikely to get any better in the next year. These parties have to be looking at an election as an inevitability. If they go sooner they fight against a weakened Liberal party headed by Trudeau who is not popular to put it nicely. If they wait they run the risk of Trudeau stepping down, if he does that he will surely prorogue and the Liberals will re-emerge in the Spring with a fresh new leader and (likely) a fresh agenda. That could be okay for the NDP/Bloc if the new leader is a Trudeau flunky with baggage or it could be a lot worse if someone strong/charismatic emerges from the contest a la 2015 Trudeau. The Liberals have the most resilient voting base, their rock bottom is still well over 20%, give their supporters an excuse to come home and they will. We've seen many times where their demise was predicted and they came back strong. If you have to go soon anyway might want to go against the devil you know. Things are unlikely to get better for the NDP/Bloc in the short term but they can get a lot worse. Should be an interesting fall sitting.