Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
538
and its a conflict of interest, you can dress it up however you like. Polymarket is paying him
|
You are aware that the current 538 model is Not the historical 538 model. Nate Silver owned the legacy 538 model IP and the new 538 model is a model by a different person. So what is your method for comparing old Nate model to new Nate model? What is the difference between old 538 and current Nate?
Secondly How does poly market make money? How do they profit off a Trump win. They charge fees based on bets. They are collecting an Ante in the poker game.
Finally how will we find out soon? We are looking a a statistical model for a single event. Which model is better is not which model produces a more accurate result in one instance. It’s which model produces a more accurate result over time.