Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Oh god, speaking of deranged
Nate runs a site funded by Peter Thiel and is a shareholder in a betting agency called polymarkets taking millions of dollars in election bets. If that is who you want to go to for unbiased analysis go for it but his numbers will prove to be inaccurate IMO.
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Are you the guy that's posted on here and doesn't understand how statistics work? I can't remember, but your post would indicate you are.
Anyways, Nate is a stats nerd doing nerdy things.
To simplify this, what Nate does is quite simple.
He aggregates all the polls, but he adjusts or reduces the impact of that poll based on that pollsters history of accuracy.
So a poll from a pollster that is all over the map doesn't have much impact. A pollstar that is always left leaning or right leaning is adjusted. Pollsters that are pretty accurate have more impact because they have a history of good polling.
You may not understand what he does, but there's almost no analysis, just computations based on historical data and current data.