[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

That first part has mostly been debunked. Pollsters are more sophisticated than that. https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/...-21st-century/

I don't see that article debunking anything at all. That article supports what I said. The pollsters have altered their methodologies to make up for the fact that consumers now use different technologies and their old methods are unreliable. Ironically, pollsters have begun to leverage even more unreliable methods of polling (opt-in for example) to gather data. These methods are as unscrupulous as push-polling used by some of the RW data services. We are in a new world of political polling and much of the data has not been proven consistent nor reliable. Only multiple cycles will prove these methods useful, and the previous elections (mid-term, state, local) have shown polling to be inaccurate, usually outside their margin for error by more than double. Polls have value, but unless the survey tools are properly vetted and applied using proven methodologies the data becomes suspect. Because we are in a brave new world of polling and technology, I would suggest you take all of these polls with a massive grain of salt and look for other data points, like potential turnout or enthusiasm levels. Those have been the indicators in the past two presidential elections that have made a difference.