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Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
I'm not sure this is accurate. I think the polling data is going to be very faulty because pollsters are over-sampling one population and not gaining any data from others. Those with landlines are getting over sampled and those who rely solely on cell numbers are being under-sampled. Less than 25% of Americans still maintain a landline. 73% of Americans rely strictly on cellular for their phone service. The younger the customer the more likely the reliance on cellular services. With the explosion of spam calling on cellular networks and the proliferation of anti-spam services on cellular lines, polling is going to be highly skewed toward the elderly and technology disengaged - or Republican voters.
If you believe that the impact of Harris' performance in the debate had no effect, I don't think you're paying attention. The noise on the wire and in social media, especially amongst women, has shown that the Harris message, especially on abortion, has resonated and impacted a significant group. Same with the Taylor Swift endorsement and the increase in voter registrations. There has been a huge ground swell in support one way and a depression in excitement the other way. The second "attempted assassination" will likely see an up tick for Trump, but every time he campaigns he has a negative impact on all but his cult following.
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That first part has mostly been debunked. Pollsters are more sophisticated than that.
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/...-21st-century/
It's true that the polling averages haven't changed much, but she was losing the spread in polling going up to the debate, and probably would have continued to slip after the debate, but I think the debate helped stop that momentum.
The polling has actually been really strong post debate, except for one very bad Atlas poll. It's highly regarded and heavily weighted in the averaging sites. It's hard to make sense how it was +3 Trump, when every other poll was more like +4/+5 Harris and the state polls last week were strong for Harris too.