Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
OK… but if scoring is up for everyone that doesn’t really speak to the decline being slowed or fundamentally changing.
Scenario A has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 20 years.
Player A averages 100pts/season for the first 10, and 80pts/season for the last 10.
That’s regression.
Scenario B has the average top players scoring 100 pts/season for 10 years, and then 140 pts/season for 10 years.
Player B averages 100 pts/season for 20 years.
That’s even steeper regression, even though his stat line doesn’t change.
If scoring goes up and player’s stat lines don’t go up as quickly, stay the same, or go down by any measure, those are all signs of regression.
|
Yes I agree. But as time goes on- the Cap Hit as a % of Total Cap Space also declines.
These are all calculations that are done at the outset during contract negotiations. How much would a 90 point Draisaitl at Age 35 be worth as a % of cap? I'm sure this contract is in the ballpark of that figure. probably something like 12% - equivalent to a ~$10M contract last season. About a ~3% annual escalator in cap over the term of the contract - 8 years.
I'm not arguing this is a discount contract. This is a market value contract for the player but he is very much in the ballpark of that in terms of value over the life of the contract. I don't anticipate it to "age poorly" is all I'm saying.