Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Here are the top 10 scorers of all time, and the number of seasons they hit 100 points, after turning 30:
Gretzky: 4
Jagr: 1
Messier: 1
Howe: 1
Francis: 2
Dionne: 3
Lemieux: 1
Sakic: 2
Crosby: 1
but 'Flames fan' InternationalVillager is here to tell us uneducated fans that McDavid and Draisaitl are both going to "average 100 points over the next 10 years", which would make them the first two players in NHL history to do it - seems reasonable!
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Yeah Draisaitl is 30-37 on his next deal, McDavid will be 29-36.
Gretzky from 29-36: 1.43 P/GP, 816 points
Crosby from 29-36: 1.16 P/GP, 658 points
So hypothetically Gretzky did "average" 100 points per season in that 8 season stretch, Crosby who is the best modern comparison is 95 points per 82.
But it's also important to remember that these point production is about 1.0 P/GP lower than Gretzky's highest output too (2.65 & 2.69 P/GP in his highest seasons).
Gretzky from 18-28: 2.34 P/GP, 1979 points in 847 games
Gretzky from 29-36: 1.43 P/GP, 816 points in 570 games
So more missed games due to injury (and lockout) and much lower point per game (61% of prime production)
And for Crosby:
Crosby from 17-28: 1.33 P/GP, 938 points in 707 games
Crosby from 29-36: 1.16 P/GP, 658 points in 565 games
So for Crosby it was not nearly as big a drop as Gretzky but still was 0.87% of his peak production. But Crosby's peak was also a bit deflated due to his injury issues from 2010-2013 that probably robbed us of his real "peak".
So if you look at Gretzky and Crosby and if you consider the improvement of goaltending and defense in the 90s probably made Gretzky's numbers reduce more drastically then maybe you can adjust that to an estimate that they will reduce to 80% of peak production.
Career to Date:
McDavid: 1.52 P/GP; 124 points per 82
Draisaitl: 1.18 P/GP; 97 point per 82
So if you were to adjust those points per game to 80% of their early career production:
McDavid: 1.21 P/GP; 99 points per 82
Draisaitl: 0.94 P/GP: 77 points per 82
But as they get older they become much less likely to play full 82 games seasons too. If McDavid averages around 90 points per season, and Draisaitl around 75 points per season over the course of each of their 8 year contracts that would be much more in line with history and expectations.