Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
Those player cards are kind of useless. WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat. What does 82% WAR mean mathematically? A 7th D as suggested by JFresh?
A 7th D is, by definition, replacement level.
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The WAR stat is broken because it can't differentiate between guys getting sheltered, vs guys that are better but playing bigger roles on bad teams.
Connor Timmins had even better advanced stats than Giordano last year, and William Lagesson had similar stats. Are they all top notch 3rd pairing guys playing 13-14 minutes per night?
I would presume that they just got heavily sheltered on a good team which led to their good underlying numbers.
Duncan Keith had like a 4% WAR in his last season in Chicago playing first pair on a bottom feeder. He was alright/serviceable in a second pairing role in his one season in Edmonton.
I've always felt that underlying numbers for players are better at comparing within teams than across teams, and the stats guys have always had great difficulty trying to balance quality of teammates and opponents with zone starts, etc.
For instance something some NHL coaches will do is throw their third pairing over the boards if Nathan Mackinnon has been on the ice for 40+ seconds, and the puck is headed towards the Avalanche end of the ice. If a coach is consistently changing his players like that, then a third pairing guy most likely will end up with positive underlying numbers against good competition.
Very tricky to come up with a one number overall ranking of a player like WAR when things like this are common in hockey.