Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
Eyeballing that graph tells me that the ‘New Legends’ were les consistent than the old ones, but tended to bounce up and down until age 30, after which the downward trend took over.
Which is about what I'd expect, and it tells me that a top scorer who turns 30 in the first playing month of an eight-year deal has very little room to go anywhere but down.
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Yeah, I was actually quite surprised that they aged appreciably better than the "Old Legends" though. We'd probably have to add about ~20-30 more players to each group to see if it's really a product of the various eras or specific to the particular players that we put in each group.
There is another flaw that I didn't account for which is variability of the scoring environment within each player's career. I would have made that adjustment if I was actually advising someone about a contract offer but for our purposes I think the approximation is good enough.